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    ITGA担心对叶片烟草的需求和缺乏替代作物的担忧必威ios下载

    Tobacco Growers from Africa, Asia, Europe, North and South America gathered at the International Tobacco Growers’ Association (ITGA) annual meeting in Litohora, Greece, on Oct. 16-17, asking governments and institutions to open a formal dialogue to address the sector’s challenges resulting from a decrease in demand for its products and the absence of viable alternative crops.

    Continued declines in the demand for tobacco will lead to a drastic drop in employment and family income in many countries, according to the ITGA. Without a concerted effort to find alternatives for tobacco growers, the organization fears the situation will get even worse.

    The gathering took place against a backdrop of considerable political turmoil, including the deepening of the Middle East crisis and the growing potential for conflicts around the South China Sea, the Korean peninsula and eastern Europe. The rise of populist parties in many developed-world democracies is also calling into question the continuity of long-established trends.

    这使得商业环境不太可预测,特别是在叶片烟草部门。必威ios下载

    There are, nevertheless, some unshaken realities, according to the ITGA: The present population of more than 900 million smokers will likely remain stable for at least a decade. The population of the world will go from the present 7.5 billion to 9 billion in 2050, which will mean that food production will have to increase steeply in the coming decades, even years.

    同时,烟草部门和其他因素的规定导致法律烟草市场缩小。必威ios下载betway必威体育怎么下载只有三个国家预计此时吸烟者的普遍存在。因为法规取决于政治环境近年来它变得不那么可预测。

    但烟草使用的预期下降不仅是由外部因素驱动的。必威ios下载菲利普莫里斯国际(PMI)最近宣布有意淘汰可燃卷烟。作为该野心的一部分,它向最近为无烟世界的基金会承诺大量捐款。该公司已在热量不燃烧(HNB)技术中投资。

    英美烟草(蝙蝠)和日本烟草国际(J必威ios下载TI)也在开发热量不燃烧的产品,它们正在加速分配,因为它们不想落后。

    这些产品的未来对于烟草种植者来说很重要,因为它们是需要叶烟草的传统香烟的唯一替代品。必威ios下载

    除了客户的偏好之外,未来将取决于税收和监管。若干政府希望像香烟一样税收新的“烟草”产品;必威ios下载其他政府希望在较低层次上征税,以鼓励吸烟者从传统卷烟切换。

    监管将是决定性的。如果HNB产品像传统卷烟一样被视为传统的卷烟,那么拥有所有相关的禁令和局限性,该公司几乎不可能宣传他们并传达它们的优势。

    对种植者的另一个关注点是最近美国食品和药物管理局(FDA)关于实施减少卷烟尼古丁的政策的宣布。这项措施将影响其他国家的政策制定者,最终会影响烟草价值链,种植者的最脆弱部分。必威ios下载对于他们来说,几乎商业地不可能生产具有如此低水平的尼古丁。此外,尼古丁的减少将使传统卷烟销售几乎不可能,将消费者推向不尊重此类限制的非法产品;因此,根据ITGA,没有世界各地的烟草种植者的任何替代计划,betway必威体育怎么下载对法律烟草的必威ios下载需求将急剧下降。

    种植者已经与世界卫生组织(W必威ios下载HO)关于烟草控制(FCTC)的框架公约相似。必威ios下载在FCTC会议上讨论的许多受试者涉及烟草种植者。必威ios下载第17条和18条直接涉及烟草产量,因为他们指的是烟草生产的替代品和烟草生长的必威ios下载环境影响。

    种植者一直提供他们的帮助及其专业知识,以确定将直接影响其未来的措施。合法种植者的代表本可以帮助政府代表团参加FCTC会议,对世界各地的烟草现状进行更加现实的观点。必威ios下载种植者坚持认为,世界卫生组织FCTC必须根据第17条返回原始任务,正如在莫斯科的缔约方大会(COP6)中重申的那样。

    COP6 reaffirmed the importance of carrying out studies and research to identify alternative crops that could provide a level of income and assured export markets equal to those provided by tobacco. For this reason, it was agreed upon that pilot projects in tobacco-growing regions would be necessary to demonstrate the long-term feasibility of such alternative crops.

    However, the FCTC keeps excluding growers and their representatives from the discussions about matters having a direct impact on tobacco production and therefore, on growers’ livelihoods.

    With COP8 on the horizon, the growers will have to be prepared for a new wave of dangerous proposals. The ITGA is expecting direct attacks on tobacco production this time, given the aggressive FCTC report on the impact of tobacco growing, released last spring. This report referred almost exclusively to tobacco’s negative impacts. According to the ITGA, it contained biased and in many cases totally unscientific views—particularly on possible alternatives to tobacco—and highly exaggerated positions on problems such as child labor, deforestation, soil erosion and water management.

    The ITGA says that tobacco growers are committed to working in a compliant manner, following good agricultural practices to produce a crop supplying a legal market of more than 900 million consumers. Their crop provides a livelihood to millions of farmers, rural workers and their families around the world.

    They also agree about the efforts to be made in order to improve tobacco production and sustainability to address challenges, such as child labor and deforestation, and accept the need of regulating consumption of tobacco products.

    然而,他们坚持认为,监管措施应该是平衡的,并根据科学,而不是意见,以防止这些措施对数百万烟农和劳动者的生计影响,而不实现烟草控制的理想目标。必威ios下载

    Even so, the ITGA expects some aggressive proposals against the growers in the coming COP besides the usual ones on plain packaging, high taxation of tobacco products, ingredients and possibly, nicotine reduction in cigarettes.

    Any of the foreseeable scenarios carries an almost certain future reduction in the demand for tobacco products and ITGA members and tobacco growers in general need to begin adapting to this reality.

    Prices have been stable or are falling due to the fact that many countries have not reduced their production and some are still increasing it. A price crash has not happened yet because the weather has reduced production in some of the biggest producers, but the forecast for the next crop is not a pleasant one, according to the ITGA.

    If the weather is “favorable,” the sector may have more than 200,000 tons of oversupply, particularly in flue cured. The ITGA has been insisting on the need to foster diversification and some of its members have already gone a long way in that path—but a lot more has to be done. As the FCTC is doing little to support research on diversification, the ITGA and its associations will have to find ways of doing it.

    必威ios下载参加ITGA年会的烟草种植者签署了申请政府和国际机构的宣言:

    • 尊重他们必须保证对对他们产生直接影响的政策的咨询权,
    • To recognize the significant economic contribution of the tobacco crop to the economies of tobacco-growing countries to be recognized, and
    • 对市场进行全面的经济研究,并在提出措施时考虑其结果。